It takes Jupiter getting slapped three times [see Tusk post here], but NASA\JPL is finally admitting (carefully in an house propaganda organ) that the estimates they regularly regurgitate to demonstrate things are fine — are false — by an order of magnitude.
The Tusk is in New Orleans working to restore wetlands, so I do not have time to get much more deeply into this sad and frightful admission at this time, but give me a few days and I’ll provide links and commentary.
“But look where we are now,” Yeomans continues. “Anthony Wesley has observed two impacts within the past 12 months alone. It’s time to revise our impact models [particularly for small impactors].”
— Donald Yeomans, head of NASA Near Earth Object program, Jupiter Impact: Mystery of the Missing Debris, NASA in-house organ