Exploring abrupt climate change induced by comets and asteroids during human history

The Younger Dryas Boundary at the Cradle of Agriculture: Abu Hureyra

Restored from the library fire 1/1/20

14 Responses

  1. I will point out one thing about the artist’s conception shown:

    We had a good discussion here some time back about the buildings at Abu Hureyra being built of STONE. Does anyone else remember that? That we were asking how stone buildings could burn?

    That image shows straw huts.

    Given the stoneworking technology shown at Góbekli Tepe, only 97 kms to the NNE, I am pretty sure the “artist’s conception” is wrong.

  2. Along those lines, I recently discovered that prior to about the 1980s, archaeoligists considered themselves to be cataloguers of the past, but about that time a “New Archaeology” came to the fore, whose main thing was to INTERPRET the past and – especially – describe the lives of the peoples of the past, for public consumption.

    I DO know that there was a lot of interpretive activity among arkies prior to that time. But since then they have gone hog wild about telling us about the finest details of the lives of ancient cultures. IMHO, we should all be suspicious of such fine details of lives of the past, because the arkies have no better information about the past now than they did earlier. They just put a lot of FOCUS now on telling us about the daily lives, etc. But, with so little to base it on (then or now), it is mostly just made up sh**. They have a general consensus among the academics, and they just use that as a framework and, if anything agrees with the consensus ideas, then they get a free pass. And we get told the same – mostly evidence-less – stories. And when we hear them enough times, most people accept that it must be true – because they’ve heard it so many times. Josef Góbbels would be proud of them: Repeat something enough times, and everyone will believe it.

    But HERE in this artist’s conception, the artist – did they even care to ASK if the homes were straw or not?

    During that last discussion on Abu Hureyra, I clearly recall going to papers and in all of them the structures were STONE, not straw. Had they been straw there would be nothing to find.

    Abu Hureyra now being at the bottom of a reservoir, we don’t have much chance to get new evidence.

  3. It’s always good to have someone state flat out that the YD impactor existed.

    But as to the YD impact scenario that the author tries to tie to, I am not sure it would hold up physics-wise…

    Thermal radiation from air shocks was sufficient to melt surface sediments at temperatures up to or greater than the boiling point of quartz (2,000°C) with Abu Hureyra near the centre of a high energy airburst impact (Bunch et al. 2012).

    I have several questions about the clear language here – the meanings of these phrases. I looked up Bunch et al 2012, and it DOES use those phrases.

    As pretty as Boslough’s models images are, at this time I am not convinced at all that air bursts can deliver TO THE GROUND sufficient heat or radiant energy to melt the soil or rocks in their passing. I have two reasons for this. One is that the passage to happen without an impact means an extremely flat (horizontal) flight path at a very low altitude. Either that or Boslough’s Goldilocks airburst that happens JUST above the ground. At speeds exceeding 10 km/sec that means the airbursts need to happen in a PERFECT window of time, not too soon and not too late – not too high and not too low. Hence the Goldilocks descriptor.

    The second reason is that if the ET is flying horizontally at 10 km/sec, the duration of the application of the heat to the soil is so short that I can’t see enough heat energy transferring into the ground LONG ENOUGH to melt the soils. The question will arise, “What if the airburst happens right overhead?” Okay, but then we have the situation similar to Boslough’s, only turned roughly 90°. We are STILL asking that, say, the village of Abu Hureyra was so monumentally unlucky that the ET object decided to disintegrate directly over them and nobody else.

    It may worth reminding that an airburst is NOT an explosion of some flammable fuel. It is the structural disintegration of the ROCK, due to super extreme buffeting by the turbulent air in front of it, which heats up from being compressed so much. The air then – over time durations of perhaps seconds – melts the front face of the ET. The melted ‘slag’ is then vaporized by the heat of the air resistance. This vaporization happens at a very high temperature and the vapors quickly are pushed out of the way and left behind. As this continues the ET gets smaller and smaller. At some point the structural integrity of the ET is too weak and the resisting pressure from the air ahead is too much and the ET breaks apart. It fragments, all in the blink of an eye. The apparent FLARE is the same as the rest of its flight except spread over a larger area. yes, rapid expansion, but only with more material vaporizing.

    How such a disintegration at one point would transfer enough heat or radiant energy to and into the ground – enough to actually melt dirt and rocks, I can’t see.

    Now quartz-melting temps happen within ground impacts, but I can’t see how conditions in an airburst are not going to be adequate to reach 2200°C. And especially not sustained enough for the heat energy to penetrate the soil and rocks. Maybe long enough to glaze the first 0.1 mm?

    Perhaps if the nearly horizontally moving ET object nearly grazed the ground?

    I learned in R&D that temperature and heat flow are two very different things. And to melt an object it is necessary for the heat TRANSFER to occur. Rocks and soil are heat insulators, meaning the heat transfer coefficients are quite low. I’ve seen insulating bricks in industrial kilns that withstood constant 3300°F (1815°C) for YEARS with only a bit of sagging. So can soil or limestone melt in milliseconds? At a distance?

    I honestly don’t think so.

  4. I’ve been kicking around the subject of this newest article : http://buentgen.com/old-trees-reveal-late-antique-little-ice-age-lalia-around-1500-years-ago/ for some time, but never was into Roman history all that much. And when one puts it along side the other dendrochronologist leanings of cosmic causation of climate change and ideas of the plague and changes in history, this may really be coming together. Sure, they blame it on volcanic activity, but I’ve never heard of sickness being corollary with volcanic ash. So, there are four things going on at the same time the Roman down fall, the King Arthur mythology, the Muslims establishing the 3rd religion in a tight area, and the plague. That is a lot of important mile stones to be placed at 555 AD ish. This morning I was reading the NYT’s and they called our new Planetary Defense Officer a her, glad the news doesn’t check the facts.

  5. The point is moot anyway Steve. Any energetic event of the magnitude capable of melting the soil would have left some sort of crater and would have obliterated the village beyond any chance of archeologic recognition. The Libyan Glasses suggest that this type of event could happen, somehow?? But, in this case, my guess would tend towards construction after the event.
    One point I found interesting was that agriculture and animal husbandry, were theorized to suddenly appear in advanced form 8,000 years ago. This suggesting that the people had learned elsewhere and moved.

  6. Bard,

    I presume that when you say “the other dendrochronologist” and his leanings of cosmic causation, that you are refering to Mike Baillie? if so, then it is importnat to remember why it is that Mike proposed a cosmic connection to the 540 event.

    Mike had found in tree ring data from Ireland as well as the rest of the world, a large environmental event in AD 536 and another in AD 540. At the time there was no evidence of a volcanic eruption at AD 540 in Greenland ice cores, though an argument could be made for one in AD 536. So what caused the second downturn in AD 540? Some at the time thought that the environmental effects of the 540’s was due to the 536 eruption, but this story didnt stand up well to tree ring evidence that showed a distinct recovery after 537, then another abrupt downturn at 540. In other words the 536/540 event was actually two staged, i.e. two separate events.

    But with no ice core evidence of a volcano to cause the tree ring downturn, Mike proposed that there may have been a cosmic impact around AD 540.

    Then in mid to late 2000’s ice core workers published data from Greenland ice cores (using teh GICC05 timescale) that showed that in the 6th century there were two large eruptions which they dated to approximately 529 and 533. In 2008, and again 2010, Mike argued that the interval between dates of bristlecone pine frost rings and the intervals between ice core acidities in GICC05 were similar, and that the ice cores were misdated by 7 years too old by the 6th century. Then in 2015 Mike and I showed that not only was this offset apparent in GICC05, but also other ice cores that were linked to GICC05, and that the misdating appeared in much of the 1st millennium.

    Six months after our paper was published, Ice core workers published a new paper that confirmed that the seven year offset did exist in GICC05, and that there was indeed an eruption in AD 536 and AD 540, and that the two eruptions were extremely large; large enough to explain the global and hemispheric cooling.

    With such a large eruption at 540, it meant that the cosmic impact hypothesis has lost much of its strength, and indeed is no longer required to explain the global cooling.

    As for volcanic ash causing sickness (i.e. the Justinian plague which has genetic investigations has identified the source as Y. Pestis AKA Bubonic plague), it is not the ash that caused it, but rather the climatic effects. See the discussion here https://cosmictusk.com/baillie-540-ad-event-likely-volcano-not-cosmic-seven-year-glitch-discovered-in-ice-cores/#comments and this specific comment here https://cosmictusk.com/baillie-540-ad-event-likely-volcano-not-cosmic-seven-year-glitch-discovered-in-ice-cores/comment-page-2/#comment-40583.

    If it had been a cosmic impact, that caused the same climatic effects, then it wouldn’t have mattered either.

  7. Jonny – Your right I have read that information and didn’t put the connection together that there was a change of mind whom ever mind that may be. I have no idea who you are and what connections you have. I think it is great that people change their minds and follow the evidence. Some have thought Venus was captured but still have an open mind and some good ideas. Just cause the horse bites at you doesn’t mean it is a bad race horse. Personally, I never really liked the recent occurrence of spacefalls in ‘history’ idea, as it is irrelevant compared to the -13KBPyr event. If everyone said all the ice cores match up to volcanoes, I won’t believe it. I’ve read a lot of this subjects books and I went off to read about the mythology and religion part of mankind to see if it does portray examples of spacefalls and sure enough it is packed with such stories and they certainly don’t sound like volcanoes and I’m confident man would have had some heritage of lava and regular earthquakes. Many of the ancient accounts of creatures from the sky correlate with plague and sickness, bad water and stench. It is even in the Saint George story. Are you saying that icy comets don’t have pathogens and only terrestrial climate changes instigate the natural pathogens to propagate?

  8. Does anyone know where I can get access to satelite imagery which is up to date, without giving Google DNA samples and access to my computer?
    The “free” Goole Earth in my area is sometimes years out of date, though the stamp claims it is only a couple of years old?

  9. Jonny –

    This just in, in case you haven’t caught wind of it yet:


    Old trees reveal Late Antique Little Ice Age around 1,500 years ago led to famine and social upheavals
    —- WUWT Article by Anthony Watts / 11 hours ago February 16, 2016

    From the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL: Tree-ring measurements have revealed a period of extreme cold in Eurasia between 536 and around 660 CE. It coincides strikingly with the Justinian plague, migrations of peoples and political turmoil in both Europe and Asia, reports an interdisciplinary team, led by the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL and the Oeschger-Zentrum of the University of Bern, in the journal Nature Geoscience.

  10. Steve,

    Thanks for looking out for me. I was aware of the paper a few days before it was published. I think one of the important points that most people are missing, and which could have implications for the YDB, is that a big event(s) (volcanic or impact) that can effect climate, can through feedback mechanisms and other coincident factors produce prolonged cooling for more than a century.

    Indeed in our most recent paper published in October, Mike and I noted that the 4.2kya event seemed to begin abruptly on 2206 BC and lasted at least 200 years possibly even 300 years.

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