Exploring abrupt climate change induced by comets and asteroids during human history

Smoking Gun: Fifty years of study by Bill Napier et al. vindicated in new paper

Taurid Meteor Stream pummels planet throughout human history, remains menace; Nobel Prize for UK Neo-Catastrophists?

Napier on the Tusk 2010
Napier on The Bos 2013
Tusk Interviews Napier 2015
Napier on Orbital Fragmentation 2019
Daily Mail

A comprehensive study of the Taurid meteor stream released last week confirms a central understanding of astronomer Dr. Bill Napier and the Comet Research Group, which was incorporated into the YDI hypothesis from the start in 2007. A large comet has been fragmenting in solar orbit for more than 20,000 years, and the resulting large and small pieces have traumatized biological earth and human civilizations with cosmic impacts on and off since that time.

From Discover Magazine:Swarm of Near-Earth Comets Linked to Recent Ice Giant Breakup

The longest-studied comets in our solar system have inspired ancient myths, religious fervor and modern scientific controversies. Now, the discovery of 88 asteroids and meteoroids orbitally aligned with one of them, Comet Encke, suggests that they all formed from the relatively recent breakup of an even bigger, icy comet. The findings are welcomed by those who believe Comet Encke and the other products of this astronomical event are responsible for many of Earth’s most violent and consequential impacts over the last 20,000 years…..

…..Such a dynamic, unpredictable and well-populated complex capable of frequently getting close to Earth stoked academic imaginations; astronomers began to rewind the clock and look for evidence of Earth’s interactions with the Taurids in the archaeological record and beyond. Scientist Richard Firestone, now at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in 2007 invoked the Taurid complex to explain global climate cooling at the start of a near-glacial period called the Younger Dryas and the sudden demise of the Clovis culture, a prehistoric people thought to be the ancestors of most indigenous peoples in the Americas. And last year, a team including Napier claimed to have found their own evidence of impact during the Younger Dryas: meltglass and scorched earth deposits that appeared to mark the demise of an early hunter-gatherer community in modern-day Syria.

Long time readers can be forgiven for their lack of surprise. The Tusk and the peer-reviewed papers on the Younger Dryas Impact have long relied on the work of Clube and Napier. And now a wonderful and detailed new paper from Ferrin and Orofino provides the best support yet for recurring disasters during the human experience linked to the on-going fragmentation from one original comet. These researchers reverse engineered the orbital history and outgassing status for dozens of major objects, and traced all of them back to a single giant disintegrating monster during the Paleolithic. Who knew?

Here’s the abstract:

Taurid Complex Smoking Gun: Detection of Cometary Activity

Using the Secular Light Curve (SLC) formalism (Ferrín, 2010), we have catalogued 88 probable members of the Taurid Complex (TC). 51 of them have useful SLCs and 34 of these (67%) exhibit cometary activity. This high percentage of active asteroids gives support to the hypothesis of a catastrophe that took place during the Upper Paleolithic (Clube and Napier, 1984), when a large short-period comet, arriving in the inner Solar System from the Kuiper Belt, experienced, starting from 20 thousand years ago, a series of fragmentations that produced the present 2P/Encke comet, together with a large number of other members of the TC. The fragmentation of the progenitor body was facilitated by its heterogeneous structure (very similar to a rubble pile) and this also explains the current coexistence in the complex of fragments of different composition and origin. We have found that (2212) Hephaistos and 169P/NEAT are active and members of the TC with their own sub-group. Other components of the complex are groups of meteoroids, that often give rise to meteor showers when they enter the terrestrial atmosphere, and very probably also the two small asteroids that in 1908 and 2013 exploded in the terrestrial atmosphere over Tunguska and Chelyabinsk, respectively. What we see today of the TC are the remnants of a very varied and numerous complex of objects, characterized by an intense past of collisions with the Earth which may continue to represent a danger for our planet.

Among the surprises in the paper, the largest and last two major airbursts (to be widely recorded) are now much more closely linked to the Taurids. The Tunguska Event of 1908 and the February 15, 2013 Chelyabinsk explosion share parentage with the same object that wiped out the mammoth — and 250 other species — and initiated the Younger Dryas climate crash. Think about that. The two most horrifying confirmed airbursts — reported in newspapers — are a direct result of a stream of debris which has interacted in a similar manner with our planet for 20,000 years. It’s all of a piece.

The paper also, without surprise, shatters Younger Dryas Impact antagonist Mark “The Bos” Boslough’s weak attack here, as responded to by Dr. Napier, the Tusk, and others here in Proceedings of the National Academy. Note in first link, Boslough’s letter to PNAS, the other authors are David Morrison, Clark Chapman and Alan Harris. Each of these men have been paid their entire careers (thankfully now wound down) to downplay impacts threats and deny any historical incidents. They ignored hard science and worthy speculation on the Taurids for decades. The Bos once told me personally in Flagstaff, Arizona that he was unaware there was any particular threat from the Taurid Meteor Stream.

(This was long before The Bos ginned up a Wa-Po fear porn article on the Taurids and never followed through with the research).

Like Big Tobacco, the “Impact Establishment,” unlike almost all fields of science communication, has historically diminished the threat posed by their subject of study. The Tusk believes this anomaly can be attributed to the intellectual fallout of the Cold War, where existential dangers distracting from US military objectives were quickly swept under the rug. Perhaps for good reason. That is, until the Cold War ended, and a pivot was made to diminish any threat which could not in some way be attributed to Anthropogenic Warming.

Bill Napier, Victor Clube, David Asher and their hardy band of UK neo-catastrophist never gave up, however, publishing again and again and again without the slightest acknowledgment or follow-up from the U.S. science establishment.

They deserve the Nobel Prize for unwinding the most influential factor in the development of earth and human history. Humans and animals and rocks do not live in a “closed system,” but rather a world characterized by long periods of quiescence, interrupted on discrete occasions by earth shattering collisions from beyond. That is the most important discovery in history — or it must be entirely refuted.

The Tusk is waiting.

This post is dedicated to Chuck Redding, AKA., cfapps7865, a digital friend and superhuman who passed this week


25 Responses

  1. Yes, they deserve a Nobel. It’s one the most important astronomical and Earth Science discoveries combined, with ‘impacts’ in many related fields all the way out to mythology and religion. And considering the resistance they faced.

  2. Thanks to all of the folks in Comet Research Group, and all who supported them during the long haul. Your tireless persistence in the face of cynical, mean-spirited, and even mercenary ambushes and sometimes plainly fraudulent dismissals, has been nothing short of inspiring. We know the sniping may continue, but it seems the tide has shifted against them.
    May they be scattered in wailing dismay by Sverdrups of validated findings.

    Throughout history with no diminution even in the era of “modern science,” we see practitioners who congregate and carry on the long traditions of what can be called “The Sanhedrin of the Pinky-sworn Truth.” Whosoever dares to challenge them by bringing forth anything that by its mere existence overthrows some item on their sacred list of accepted TRUTHS —> that person is to be Snorted at Derisively, then proclaimed mistaken, then irresponsible… Untrustworthy… DANGEROUS. Deserving of Annihilation.

    This is the classic escalating attack, to which the target must buckle, apologize, acknowledge the Infallibility of the Wise, or Die.

    Yet in the end, the Real Truth remains, and the cynical whoring Ethical Ciphers who were only ever in the game to monetize their brain pulp, are left on the manure pile of history. Forgotten, except possibly as a new set of swear words, as the Cosmic Derisive Snort (KDS) fades with the retreating Galactic EM Sheet.

    –> Mad Fiddler

  3. Fear Porn. yep, that’s what will be next. Prepare to have your bank accounts drained as “Defense Industry” shifts gears. Behind every revaluation made by truth-seekers follows a pack of drooling profiteers , screeching about salvation and shaking their donation plates.

  4. And surely this explains the astronomical obsession of our ancestors in building massive stone observatories all over the world, from siberia to Mexico, in communities that at least from the end of the YD were completely unconnected.

  5. Unfortunately, in the science establishment, the status quo rules. The Physics department of my local University, University of Hertfordshire, every year, run a series of very good physics/maths based lectures, covering a diverse range of subjects.
    A few years back, they ran one on the history of Comets/Asteroids and their interaction with man. The Lecturer for that event, his name escapes me, was used by the national media for most of his career, to comment on breaking news stories, regarding anything to do with astronomy. He opened his presentation by telling the audience: “…my career is now behind me, so I can speak with complete freedom…”. In that case, this should be interesting, I thought. I was looking forward to hearing his views on the Younger Dryas event.
    To cut a long story short, he didn’t even mention it. Can you believe it? If he didn’t agree with it, then at least mention it, even it was only to ridicule the work of Bill Napier and his colleagues. After the presentation, I went up to him and asked why he didn’t mention the Younger Dryas event, since, I thought the 300 strong audience may have been interested to know, there is a growing consensus (not among the establishment), that an ELE happened just over 12,500 years ago. He looked at me, scoffed, and then went on to say, that he used to include it but no longer felt it was relevant. He was so smug; he didn’t even hang around for my response.
    What does this say about the science community: Even when you retire, you are still being watched. Stick to the script.

  6. It looks like we better re-think why the ancients built so many megalithic structures as giant calendars. They weren’t building them to know when to plant or harvest or have religious festivals. They built them because they were terrified and needed to know when the earth would pass through the Taurid swarm so they could prepare and take what cover they could.

  7. Hmmm…for the sake of civilization’s future security why not “fly” a properly scientifically equipped instrument package against the flow of debris in Encke’s orbit surveying for any/all such chunks sufficient in size to cause damage to Earth? Forewarned is fore armed!

  8. The paradigm shift is due in all scientific diciplines right now and the resistance will be organized by all stakeholders in Big Money Science. Kudos to the Comet Research Grop and Cosmic Tusk for bringing in the right perspectives concerning the risks to be a human. We need an early warning system for the Taurid Complex – and we have to cast limelight on the comet deniers, more than on climate deniers. Scientific priorities must be based on all research – spanning the whole academic and exo academic spectrum.

  9. I posted a link to this this paper on your site and Martin Sweatman’s on October 7. Maybe it’s petty, but it would have been nice to receive an acknowledgment from either one of you. [tiny violins]

  10. Are there any government agencies of any country taking notice of the research done by Dr. Napier and dedicating large telescopes to the study of the Taurid Stream? God I hope there are. After Chelabynsk it would seem that the Russians might be interested in doing that. You don’t have to have a degree in Social Psychology to understand why consensus is so powerfully limiting in science. Yes there can be climate change, rapid climate change, after a large impact, yet we will probably have to wait for a generation of scoffers to die off before the Dr. Napier’s work will get the recognition it deserves.

  11. Charles Redding was a great man who provided a great service to us all. I would be deeply grateful if his database of Google Earth locations and archeological sites could be shared so his research may live on and propagate as part of his legacy.

  12. Once again, a great article written by the Tusk. I truly admire the incredible tenacity and perseverance of Napier and his team.
    Just like a comet impact, it is only a matter of time before their Earth shattering work becomes an undeniable hard-core fact for the scientific establishment and finally changes the humankind’s perspective about our past and uncertain future.

    Big thanks! and much respect to you George for dedicating this post to the one and only, and now “Late Great Chuck Redding”
    After following him for the last 8 years and watching over 800 of his 1000+ videos, as well as interacting with him on countless occasions throughout the years, his sudden passing definitely saddens me as much as the lost of a good friend.
    Thanks again George, much love to you and yours from the north side of the border. #ydie ✌ ☄

  13. Yann the man! Thanks buddy. We will win in the end. What bugs me is some men in the win will be at their end.

  14. Having no scientific qualifications, my only observation on the debate is that it boils down to supporting one theory or another: uniformitarianism v. catastrophism. Scientists seem to fall in to one group or the other.

  15. Face facts guys. Global politics has been operated like a Religious cult for a long time. The politicos are ‘Soothsaying(?) Oracles and Academia are their “High Priests”. These people trumpet their omnipotence, and questioning their powers is apostasy or barbarism. Is it any wonder they exhibit an incestuous relationship?
    There is no way that the Mainstream could admit ignorance or impotence in the face of formerly unrecognized threats without jeopardizing their own Authority and positions.
    Any subject they cannot claim to their own accounts must be either attacked or ignored. Inconsistent data simply does not exist….?
    OT. Does anyone have information about the YD climate of Central Turkey (Gobeckli Tepi region)?
    The dating seems inconsistent.

  16. Consider the effects of SpaceX, over the next 15 years, dropping the cost of moving mass to orbit by a factor of 100 to 1000 will mean for physical investigations of the Taurid Stream and its effects on Earth in the past 20-25 thousand years.

  17. Amlodhi the uniformitarianism versus catastrophism presumption is a false dichotomy . The closing passage of the Tusk article – ” Smoking Gun Fifty Years of Study by Bill Napier et al Vindicated in New Paper “- intimates the idea of ” punctuated equilibrium ‘ without naming it:

    “Humans and animals …..do not live in a ‘closed system ‘ but rather a world characterized by long periods of quiescence [ equilibrium ] interrupted on discrete occasions [ punctuated ] by earth shattering collisions from beyond …..the most important discovery in history – or it must be entirely refuted ” …….

    In a just world and apolitical scientific establishment , Victor Clube , Bill Napier , David Asher Duncan Steele and Mike Baillie should be awarded a joint Nobel Prize for their now vindicated research into comet hazards , mythology and civilizational trauma ..Not charlatans like Al Gore and Barack Obama .. In the endnotes to The Cosmic Winter published in 1990 Clube and Napier mentioned Baillie’s ‘narrowest ring” sequences in the Holocene dendrochronological record and quoted an excerpt from ‘The Romance of Reality ‘ in the chapter ‘ Cataracts of Fire ‘ that hinted at cometary disaster in the fourteenth century Baillie’s further research ,compiled in his books ‘Exodus to Arthur ‘ and New Light on the Black Death ‘ – and now the 1650 BC Dead Sea airburst – has essentially proved the case …

    There is some truth to this observation in the Tusk article : ” until the Cold War ended and a pivot was made to diminish any threat which could not in some way be attributed to Anthropogenic Warming “….

    It is unthinkable for many of those reputationally, psychologically politically and financially invested in the imaginary “climate emergency ‘ that all the trillions of dollars , climate jamboree conferences , hysterical activism ,government resources and so forth were wasted for nothing ….

  18. For 99.9% of human history we could do nothing to prevent destruction from a comet or asteroid. It’s probably only in the past 50 years that perhaps we have developed technology that can save the planet. Hopefully the recently launched NASA mission will be successful. However, the countries of the world should be spending trillions of dollars today to advance these technologies and build advanced warning systems. Hoping this new study and the new movie “Don’t Look Up” will raise awareness.

  19. Multitudes of cometary impact events spread out over an intense two decade period around circa 12,800 years before the present. Combined energy release totals of perhaps a conservative figure of ten million megatons. How do I know, you can rightly ask? It is discussed at length in the recent and very controversial book by Graham Hancock entitled “America Before.” So I have to ask, could the YDB impact event have been overall powerful enough to completely obliterate an advanced civilization? That when there were Clovis peoples roaming the ice free parts of North America, there were indeed people or peoples in various parts of the world living in cities, perhaps even sizeable ones with sophisticated organizational planning, governments, literary languages now long lost forever? I’m reminded of a little known book from circa 1966 by a little known science history professor: Map Of The Ancient Sea Kings–Evidence Of Advanced Civilization In The Ice Age. A lost possibly global civilization that mapped the entire world showing correct relative longitudes, and then suddenly snuffed out by a horrendous series of comet impacts, and therein a long era of recorded history forever erased. Indeed, a comet “swarm” that has the potential to also erase our current recorded history?! I tend to think a new ten million megaton comet impact event could erase us fairly effectively indeed.

  20. A brief correction: Maps Of The Ancient Sea Kings–Evidence Of Advanced Civilization In The Ice Age, by Professor Charles H. Hapgood, Chilton Press, c.1966. I simply wrote too fast to include Professor Hapgood’s name.

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