Exploring abrupt climate change induced by comets and asteroids during human history

The Fall of Phaethon

Long published field evidence supports Bronze Age Bavarian impact

The Chiemgau impact in Bavarian Germany stands out as a particularly sympathetic “martyr” crater. The evidence for a Bronze Age euro-apocalypse is sincerely published and well established as a legitimate hypothesis based on decades of meticulous fieldwork, but entirely dismissed because the proponents believe the impact was relatively recent in geological terms. The authors don’t give the requisite deference to the impact crater establishment. (For more see Crater, Hiawatha)

But the coolest thing about the Chiemgau impact is how it may support a most ancient story concerning the Greek god Phaethon, who crossed the sky in a day.

Phaethon appealed to his father, who swore to prove his paternity by giving him whatever he wanted. Phaethon asked to be allowed to drive the chariot of the sun through the heavens for a single day. Helios, bound by his oath, had to let him make the attempt. Phaethon set off but was entirely unable to control the horses of the sun chariot, which came too near to the earth and began to scorch it. To prevent further damage, Zeus hurled a thunderbolt at Phaethon, who fell to the earth at the mouth of the Eridanus, a river later identified as the Po.

Another cool thing for the Tusk is that I first learned the Phaethon myth may represent an a comet way back in 1995. My original guru is my old buddy Bob Kobres. His World Wide Web Page back in the day opened my eyes to the possibility that ancient myth isn’t all just caveman campfire stories. Bob believed that long related tales of ‘god’s wrestling in the sky’ were based on actual observations of physically realistic cosmic impacts.

Here is Bob just last week commenting on the Chiemgau impact, eleven years after this paper, and 26 years after his original webpage.

This impact could indeed be related to the Phaethon event as the time period spans the 1159 BC climate downturn that is likely impact induced and what led to the Bronze Age cultural collapse. However I doubt that the legend of Phaethon was inspired by this or any object that only became visible as it entered Earth’s atmosphere. As I pointed out in my 1995 article on this subject, only a close passage of a comet that included impact with fragments from that comet fits all of the details of the story of Phaethon. The most distinguishing aspect is the description of Phaethon’s chariot halting about halfway across the sky, pausing, and then rapidly heading back to the east as the chariot begins to fall apart. This apparent reversal of direction is due to the actual motion of the comet overtaking the illusion of motion caused by Earth’s rotation. As there are impact relatable stories from other cultures that are thought to come from the same time period and describe this west to east motion of an object in the sky it is very unlikely that the Phaethon story was derived from a local perspective of a single meteoroid impact. https://web.archive.org/web/20001109055500/http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/phaeth.html

34 Responses

  1. I am very glad to learn that Bob Kobres ia still with us and thriving. Hi Bob!

    He was an early pioneer in impact research. Another major player was my friend the late Timo Niroma.

    The current problem in impact research is that no one has stepped in to fill the place of Benny Peiser. With my stroke, I have lost touch with the African, India Indian, and Pacific impact researchers. There ix no forum or clearing house for geological research on recent impacts.

    My own Etruscan Dictionary is doing well, and the first inscription from the Fanum Voltumne refers to the impact which Pliny related.

    BobK certainly deserves far more recognition for his early work in this field, And he is not the only one.

    Daniel Usikov’s work on gamma ray production in hyper velocity impacts had relevance for Earth Impacts as well. I am pretty sure if he were to receive a Nobel, I would receeve a nice sum for my work on translation.

  2. Referencing Marinus A. van der Sluijs, especially his series 6 part series on Traditional Cosmology and On the Origin of Myths certainly could not harm this argument!

  3. I suppose I should note at this point that the Great Atlantic Impact Mega-Tsunami is completely ignored as well.

    Even by our host here, who lives right in the affected area.

    I have no idea what the Holocene Impact Working Group is up to.

  4. Holocene Impact Working Group has been defunct for many years.

    Regarding this “peer reviewed” article, published in a reputable archaeological journal, based on this article it can be concluded that they are utterly incompetent in reviewing impacts. This article states that a 600 m crater has been created by a 1100 m impactor, among the other physically impossible inanities. Can you spot some others of those, just for fun, and to prove your own competence ?

    Other than that, today is the Asteroid Day.

    Considering that, I inform you of the Asteroid Day Internet TV on https://asteroidday.org/, running 24/7. You are encouraged to visit.
    Perhaps the best illustration of the number of researchers in the topic of impacts, and of the quality of their program, is that for the past 2 weeks, whenever I was trying to watch it, the number of viewers of that TV only once went into double digits, barely so, and only briefly.

  5. Other than that, Clube and Napier are not vindicated. Their claim is that a sizeable rogue Centaur can spontaneously disintegrate, just by the actions of sunlight, outside of the most inner ranges of the solar system. That never happened. Escape velocity from such a massive object, as this intruder is, is considerable.

  6. Before you jump to argue, regarding my last comment, Clube and Napier are right in their dynamical analysis, but are overestimating the danger, since the only realistic mode of disintegration into large chunks of such a large object is encounter with a planet, typically a gas giant. Then chunks might get perturbed further inward, but by the time they come into inner solar system they are no longer so large, nor so numerous, because tidal encounters can only produce a few chunks, except in SL9 case, when the outcome is ~20 chunks. That, however, is only 1 out of 4 options, the least probable one.

    In the inner solar system, collisions, YORP, and Yarkowsky effects come to play and fairly quickly in cosmic scales of time pulverize the intruders.

    To summarize, chances that mutiple chunks of a sizable object collide with Earth Richardson et al. 1998 paper about close encounters estimate as once per her current age.

  7. Hi Casual Visitor – From my point of view, Clube and Napier were absolutely right in spotting the 26 million year or so periodicity of injection. I enjoy circulating to geologists a paper by the late Stelinrg Webb on that topic.

    The number and size of the injected parent bodies I leave open for discussion, as it is not my area of expertise. I think we need planetary data from our solar system before any theories can be formed at all, and to my knowledge there is absolutely no money being devoted to this by NASA. It is always nice for data to precede theory.

    Thank you for the news about the Holocene Impact Working Group – I did not know, as I have not been corresponding with anyone since my stroke. The important part of this news is that there is no funding for research on recent “small” impacts. This is a social phenomenon which I am thoroughly sick of, and it makes no sense at all. yeah, we get movies, but where are the research bucks?

    For example, where is the research money for the Holocene Start Impact Events? Is there even a Geological Society of America session going to be held on these? And then you have the impact mega-tsunami’s. What room will that GSA session be held in?

    As far as the bad physics in that article, and speaking about money, when can I expect my Nobel Prize for spotting the production of gamma rays in large hypervelocity impacts? I am pretty broke by now, so even the money from a smaller physics prize would be helpful. For that matter, perhaps Firestone Snr might consider a small donation, for the work I did all those years ago disentangling his first book for the meteorite list researchers And there was no pay for defending Hibbens observations, though you might think the Flagstaff Arizona school of archaeology might want to donate a little by way of thanks.

  8. The nr of viewers of the Asteroid Day TV has jumped to 1380 for the prime show of this year, running at this moment.

  9. After some educational intro, B612 presents itself, they are building a map of the solar system in 4D,… 1800+ viewers…

    this is followed by PanSTARRS presentation (if I spelled that good)… some viewers are leaving….

    …1822 viewers, new reecord,…1846… a panel debate starts,….

    1st speaker causes an instant drop in viewers, down to 1646, but it rises back again to 1700,… new record 1850, but it falls again lightly,…
    2nd speaker, a young woman, 1900+ viewers,… 2000+ viewers,…
    1st speaker comes back, 100 viewers flee in an instant,… he goes away, viewers come back to 2000 exactly,…
    3rd speaker, also a young woman, 1990 viewers,…
    4th speaker, B612 guy again, 2024 viewers,…2057 viewers,…he shows some maps, 2105 viewers,…

    5th speaker, young woman again, an amateur astronomer, … 2100 viewers,…
    6th speaker, space sector official from Luxembourg, a man, 2172 viewers,…

    7th speaker, a young woman, 2205 viewers,…

  10. In the meantime…

    Greenland – $52.3 Million dollars so far and climbing

    NASA NEO detection budget – maybe, maybe $20 million this year
    While Musk launches his com sat constellation, making it difficult to use streaking for detection.
    And the NEOcam is glad handed.

    My budget – 0$
    **** me, I am even tight with ones for the young ladys’ garters at the Gentlemens Club
    And where the hell is recognition for being the first to spot the Holocene Start Impact Events?

    Funding for Geological research on recent impacts – 0$

    You got theory, then you got data For Europe w have the Phaethon group, the group working on Meri’s crater, the Fanum Voltumnae inscriptions students, the CNRS et al groupd working the coast for impact mega-tsunami.

    Theoretical models are nice and all that, but what is the data? For all of the worthless crap our government funds, where are the impact research dollars?

  11. Took a look at the schedule. Where the hell are the impact specialists? Where is their panel?
    When do they get on TV?
    Oh, that’s right… some Discovery Channel documentary, perhaps after a chunk of SW3 hits us.

    These people do not get it. We nearly lost the Urals, Russia and part of China in the Chelyabinsk impact. How? A little bit different, and the Nuke electric plants would have gone up.

  12. 2360 viewers…
    …speakers change, each taking several minutes, all speaking some basic educational info, or in some occasions basic self-presentations,…
    the founder of the Asteroid Day comes to say few words, together with always the most passionate Patrick Michel, who shows some of his simulations of the YORP fissioning,…
    …2470 viewers,…
    … now they are speaking Japanese! In Japan, however, it is already July 1!
    …2500 viewers, back to English,…discussing and showing a fireball from Feb 28, 2021.. it crushed on a driveway and made a 10 cm crater, quite impressive, 1st one ever collision with asphalt, as far as I know, same composition like material from Hyabusa 2 was recovered,…

    Vesta has Fe core, 9% of the MB mass,… 2546 viewers,…
    new panel, 4 panelist, including P. Michel, 2584 viewers,… He speaks, 4‚107 viewers!!!,…4306 viewers, more rubble pile aggregation simulations,….these end, 3,000 viewers,…
    Naomi Murdoch speaks of landing on Benu, it behaved like liquid, no resistance on touchdown, loose surface just moved away,…
    PI of the Ceres mission,… Ceres is 40% water, has 40 km thick crust,…many white patches pop out of impacts,… ice exposed,….
    curator of samples from space missions,… 5 grams from Hayabusa 2 would last for decades of analysis,…
    2800 viewers for the last 3 speakers,…

    commercial from Luxembourg,…

    more blah, blah, 2800 viewers,…
    some info about past impacts, Chelyabinsk/ 20 a (OK), Tunguska/10 ka, then Chicxulub/66 Ma, frequencies downplayed severely, as usual,…1800 viewers, … 1500 viewers,…
    3 main options of in situ deflection, kinetic, standoff nuclear, mass driver, does not mention lasers, which are a remote method,…
    another man speaks of impacts, says dinosaur impact took 2s to explode, yet it took at least 10,… (180 km at 17 km/s speed),… 1351 viewer,

    another commercial of the Luxembourg space agency

    DART mission is next, only the 2nd mission of impact, first on an asteroid, …1218 viewers,… 1st asteroid mitigation mission ever,…
    ~10 min change (703 s) of orbital period of the moon of Didymos expected (Dimorphos), 1000 viewers,…
    they’ll have 1:20 minutes of target tracking before impact, so small it is, unknown shape,…
    discussion of Hera (the after-strike reconnasaince) mission, 922 viewers,… autonomous close-range navigation, irregular gravity field,…
    discussion on EU space politics, deflection, observation plans, … 848 viewers

    commercials, … 815 viewers,…

    final part of the program, 5 missions in the next 3 a scheduled
    P. Michel again, but this time he speaks French, about the DART mission and the role of EU in it, still 820 viewers,….
    the founder of the Asteroid Day again, promoting the DART/HERA missions on Didymos/Dimorphos,… 850 viewers,…
    more about the Hera mission,…

    promo story on Psyche asteroid and mission (the only large mostly metal asteroid, an exposed core), 881 viewers,…
    PI of the Psyche mission, 900 viewers,…. an unlikely hypothesis is the likeliest one that they were able to think of,…
    denser than rock, reflective as metal, will check magnetic field, will take picture, will take gama ray spectometer, for composition data, would observe the gravity field through orbiting,

    Lucy mission wil visit 5 targets, 7 asteroids, including Trojan asteroids,…
    PI of Lucy mission, describes the instruments and the mission, 826 viewers,… this spacecraft has the most magnificient solar panels,…
    (aparently they are no longer using RTG power source for a Jupiter distance mission)

    Japanese MMX mission for returning samples from Phobos (in Japanese) (good luck on that), will visit Phobos and deimos and deploy a European rover on Phobos, 846 viewers,…. scheduled for 2024

    Next talk is about Space Resources and space mining

    DART & Hera once again, from the ESA’s point of view, 759 viewers,…to maintain contact with their cubesat they would need to be able to point a telescope onto a 10 cents coin on the Moon (which is moving, and the telescope is moving, 789 viewers,…

    Google lunar X prize is , 746 viewers,… 717 viewers,…

    one more commercial of the Luxembourg space agency

    the program ends with the thanks for sponsors, mentioned amd listed all, 694 viewers.

    Next, the previous 5h of program repeats…

    I missed the first 5 minutes, so I cover these here: first the most fundamental question is being answered: ‘What is an asteroid ?’…
    the answer: rubble piles of debris,… 656 viewers,…

  13. The Chelyabinsk was not that dangerous, merely ~15 meters in size — it exploded in the atmosphere without reaching the ground.

    Even a Tunguska kind of an air blast would not destroy a nuclear power plant. Remember that in Fukushima the whole city was wiped off, but the plant stood. They are so robust.

    Further, rest assured that NASA takes their mandate on NEO detection seriously. There are more telescopes in operation, like PanSTARS, with ever increasing abilities.

    As for the impact specialists, 2 months ago they had an exercise in attempting a deflection of a large object at short notice at the planetary defense conference. It turned out that nothing could have been done. But, the exercise was designed with such an outcome in mind.

  14. Casual Visitor –

    So many authorratatvie statements…

    1.8 atmospheres overpressure, and your lungs rupture. You die.
    Without human attendants, most nuke plants fail, and do not go safe.
    So we were within a “fine” hair of having four plants melt down and take out the Urals.

    George Brown Jr. ammendment passed 2005.
    I(And a hats off to those fine elected officials who saw this bit through.)
    I have watched NASA glad hand this deadly hazard since then.
    (I have confidence in Sen. Nelson. We’ll see.)

    It will take space based assets to get adequate warning.
    NEOcam lingers in limbo, while Webb goes up.
    Let me run this by you again: We (humanity) nearly lost the Urals.

    Why were none of the world’s impact specialist invited to that “Planetary Defense Conference”?
    Without them, your problem space is not well defined.

    I enjoyed Brian May’s presentation.
    There are some imagery specialists I know who he would enjoy meeting.
    Perhaps we will get to meet some day.

    And many thanks to Belgium for hosting this event, and for all of the tech for broadcast.
    But where were the world’s recent impact specialists on Asteroid Day?

  15. To get to a bi-annually held Planetary Defense Conference (without “…”), one has to submit an abstract when a call for papers is issued. Many apply, but the time is limited, so of those who get accepted, about half are accepted as posters only. Some reputable people, nonetheless, do get an invitation to submit an abstract (I was invited this year for instance).

    If you, or other recent impact speacialists, have something to say, submit an abstract, or several of them, next time.

    The Chelyabinsk event merely shattered windows. The human attendants of power plants are behind many thick walls and security doors. How do you think that 1.8 bars of air pressure could get to them ? Even a 30 m tsunami in Fukushima was not enough to endanger them, although it wiped off the whole city from the coast.

    I’m not sure what you mean by ‘authoritative statements’. I just reported in length what was spoken on the show.

  16. Hmm. Let’s see.

    In this hypothetical desktop exercise, no Chinese or Russians spotted the impactor,
    and their scientists undertook no actions.
    Excuse me, but it smells like B*** S***, and a complete waste of taxpayer dollars.
    Which is what we usually get.

    How about this hypothetical scenario.
    Chelyabinsk was just a little larger.
    We go up to Iron Mountain, pull the NASA email backup files,
    and fire people.
    How does that work?

    PS – I can pretty much state without fear of contradiction that you know nothing about Russian nuclear electric plants.

    To my knowledge, no recent impact specialist has ever been invited to any NASA sponsored function. So we end up with “Planeetary Defence Conferences” with no experts in the Planetary Defense threat.

  17. Perhaps “vindicated” was too strong a word. But I was really struck by the similar size ranges for “Satan” and this new comet. And of course a change in timing might have put the comet into an encounter with Saturn, either propelling it into interstellar space or trapping it in the Solar System.

    Mr. Grondine, I just ordered your book. Looking forward to it.

  18. PD conferences are primarily being organised by ESA, and were held in Europe 4x, in USA twice, and once in Japan thus far.

    Russia, China, India, Israel, and many others from all corners of the world DO gather to participate, on high level of authority.

    Thus, the efforts are global, and the topic is planetary defense. Multiple branches of research are being covered, so it is a conference, not a symposium (1 topic only), nor a workshop (dedicated effort by invitation only). One has to pay cotization to participate on a conference, and then share info, and cooperate with others, independent players, without money exchange. Everyone is expected to fund their own efforts.

    To say that this is a “conference”, and ‘without experts’, while every space faring entity has participants on the highest level of expertise on these gatherings, just shows how ignorant you are.

    So, I’m telling you again, if you have something to say, submit your abstracts in 2023, next time.

    Regarding my knowledge of the Russian nuclear power plants, they are the best on the world at present. There are many of those around here in Europe, and all work well. I also remember experiencing the fallout from Chernobyl. It was a problem for a month until the iodine decayed. After that, life went back to normal, except in 30 km range around the site of disaster. There it became a heaven for rich wild-life.
    By now, 60% of Sr and Cs have already decayed, and it turned out that these were never a problem of serious proportions for wild-life.

  19. The orbit of this new comet is practically perpendicular to the plane of ecliptic. It’s inclination is 95.568°degrees, so it is moving in retrograde direction. When it reaches the distance of Saturn, it would be that far below the plane of ecliptic, so no close encounters are possible.

    It can only encounter planets while intersecting the ecliptic. Minimal orbit intersection distance is 6 AU for Jupiter, and few AU for both Saturn and Uranus. Yet, judging by the depiction on Wikipedia, its orbit does come close to Pluto’s orbit. Only close encounters with Pluto-Charon system by this object are thoretically possible. Not this time though, maybe in 5.5 Ma, when it comes again. Very roughly, I estimate that the chances of an encounter within 1 lunar distance from Pluto within the age of the solar system for this object are ~1%.

  20. Hi Patrick –

    The first edition is sold out, with no second edition in sight,
    so you have to buy it used at the current collector price.

    ( I probably owe Dr. May a copy, given the number of times I covered “This thing Called Love” on bass.)

    It looks like I’ve been given a new hobby for my retirement, tormenting minor bureaucrats.

  21. “To say that this is a “conference”, and ‘without experts’, while every space faring entity has participants on the highest level of expertise on these gatherings, just shows how ignorant you are.”

    Well, junior, when I began covering the impact hazard, there was no one at NASA responsible and the budget was zero. So one might think you’d be far far more grateful for your paycheck.

    How did I do it? I fed my reporting and my contacts to my fellow journalists, and now reporting the impact hazard is a good source of copy and income for all of them.
    And it will be for the rest of your life.

    “So, I’m telling you again, if you have something to say, submit your abstracts in 2023, next time.”

    Since all of those folks from those other countries meet annually, why was no one from those other countries invited to your desktop exercise?

    There is a handful of nuclear physicists around the globe who would really like to know.
    (Have I mentioned before that I’m trying for a Nobel for spotting the production of gamma rays in large hyper-velocity impacts?)

    So let’s see.
    You are spending taxpayers’ money for Planetary Defense Conferences,
    without actually having any idea of what you are defending against,
    and no idea of exactly what the hazard to the planet is?

    Is that what you are telling me?

    Am I really going to have to drag the left side of my body up the Hill
    to light another fire under you?

    Its seventeen years and counting, and Space Sciences continues to blow off the instructions in the George Brown Jr Ammendment to the NASA charter.

    I don’t know if Senator Nelson will be pleased with Space Science’s performance here.

  22. The table-top exercise is not mine. I am not and I was not involved in that anyhow. This is only a side-show on these conferences, not a primary event. The conference is about papers, one shown every 10-20 minutes for 5 days, all day long, together with some hundred posters, who do not fit within the allocated time of 5 days.

    If you think that foreigners are not invited, you are misstaking. I said that I was invited (as a foreigner), as well as many others. That includes Russians and Chinese, for instance.

    The previous PD confrence has been held in USA. Perhaps you should be interested in reading the summary of it.

    Summary of the 6th IAA Planetary Defense Conference (PDC): (short file, 16 pages)

    Conference Summary and Recommendations: (long, in-depth version, 53 pages)

    I end this conversation.

  23. Mr. Grondine, if you and Dr. May will sign a copy, I will buy it. If I can afford it!

  24. Hello Casual Visitor –

    Thank you very much for the links, and my apologies for being cabrupt with you.

    “Establishing an International Journal of Planetary Defense was suggested.”

    Since Dr. Peiser took up global warming scepticism and abandoned impact research, there has been no clearing house for impact research. (my apologies to our host George Howard here, but he has a real life to live)

    “Conference participants expressed frustration at the contrived nature of the hypothetical asteroid threat exercise, and at their inability to influence the exercise outcome.”

    Without the historical research, the scenarios presented will always be hypothetical.

    “Incorporating nuclear device deflection modeling capabilities into the CNEOS NEO Deflection App website would be useful.”

    As a last resort, nuclear charges can be used in three ways, delay, diversion, disruption. And no one at NASA has any experience with them. This failure is likely Clark “no nukes” Chapman’s legacy. We need early warnning; we need the NEOcam

    If you notice, in this desktop exercise there was no role given to Russia, China, or “Europe”,
    and all three have launchers and nuclear charges. It looks to me like there was no one from the State Department involved.

    I am impressed by the group photograph.

  25. “Tunguska-sized impacts occur about once in three quarters of a millennium”

    Try about once per hundred years, based on the historical record.
    Not once per 750 years.

    “Sessions concluded with discussions of how the public should be notified of a threat and kept informed as the threat evolved, and also considered political and policy issues that might affect the decision to take timely action.”

    But no discussion of civil defense measures (shelter, evacuation of coastal areas) that could greatly reduce casualties. Was anyone from FEMA there?

    “An analysis of a glass-strewn field in Chile indicate that a Super-Tunguska fireball(s) over Chile ~12,500-13,000years ago generated widespread glasses and strong winds. The object was likely a rubble pile, with trapped grains indicative of a primitive body consistent with a volatile-rich carbonaceous or comet. Humans likely witnessed the event.”

    Once again, we know from gamma ray production there were two major impacts.
    From the river outflows, we know that both major hits were on the North American ice sheet.
    From native testimony, we know the impactors were cometary.
    The Chilean impact was from a small fragment.

    William Ailor,The Aerospace Corporation
    Hi Bill – a new aerospace function has emerged.

    Clark Chapman outhwest Research Institute
    Looks like I guessed correctly.

    L.A. Lewis Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
    This is very good news.

    Sorli Kya Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
    getting data for those lunch time colloquia?

    Chen, China
    Dongye, China
    Yang, China
    Zhou, China
    very good to learn

    Krobka Russia
    Dimitri Vavilov, RAS
    good to see
    “A new impact monitoring system built by the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.” Details?

    Association of Space Explorers
    My guess is that once NEOcam goes up and the hazard is better understood,
    CAPS may be considered.
    It also looks to me that China and Russia are looking at CAPS.

    Sandia National Laboratories: Barbara Jennings, Bill Fogleman
    Los Alamos National Laboratory: Mark Boslough

    “The analysis concludes that explosion of a 300 KT nuclear device at 50 to 80 meters from the object 60 to 120 days before impact would likely prevent any significant effects on Earth. The device would be carried to the object by a spacecraft using solar electric low-thrust propulsion after launch by a Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.”

    As far as the hypothetical exercise goes, my estimate is that what will happen as it currently sets is that every nation that can (US, Europe, China, Russia) will launch nuclear charges when impact is a certainty, with no long space cruise to target.

    “Mr. Artash Nath,a 7th-grade student from Canada, for his paper “Using Machine Learning to Predict Risk Index of Asteroid Collision”

    The next generation comes along.

  26. Hi Patrick – I sold one copy this weekend at powwow, to a young lady of Seneca descent who is also a historical re-enactor. You will have to prove yourself worthy, and perhaps we can then work something out.

  27. Apology accepted.

    Here is the summary of all previous 8 exercises, 3 made by FEMA:

    Key role is always upon the host of the conference. the Chinese had their say when the conference was in Tokyo, and the Europeans when the conferences were in Europe, like this year.

    There were 4 Tunguska-class impacts on land in the XX xtry alone. Well, Tunguska was 2-3 MT, while the other 3 were 0.3-0.6 Mt each.

    Just to note: I was the first to point out about a decade ago that YORP-induced fissions are increasing the number of smaller asteroids, and thus enlarging the risk in the category of objects that are <600 m, when YORP becomes a factor of significance.

  28. There are ~20 smaller impacts annually , in the tens of kt range, of car-sized objects that harmlessly burn in the atmosfere, but produce a bolide, and some debris on the ground. Sound and fireballs are being monitored by all nuclear forces by all means available, satellite and ground-based, to distinguish them from nuclear attacks and prevent false alarms.

  29. Hi Casual Visitor –

    Thank you for being gracious with me.
    Mom gave me a copy of “How to Win Friends and Influence People”, but I never read it.

    Yes, the nuke testing detectors give an accurate count of the smallest hits.
    It is the Tunguska and mid class impacts where the problem lay.
    I used to know everyone working on those, and gave out a two page briefing sheet on their research.
    Oh well.
    Given that SW3 is disintegrating in the inner solar system,
    there will likely be a change in attitudes shortly.

    Maybe I’ll get that Nobel cash after the next hit.

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